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May 11, 2020

The global economy’s most important commodity is in serious trouble. Oil prices slumped from near $50 to $20 over just 11 days in March, breaking the market’s back. The coronavirus was spreading at alarming rates and countries were going into deep freeze, crushing demand for everything from gasoline to jet fuel. April then decimated oil. Consumption slumped by a third, according to some estimates, as the world headed into deep recession. Crude was so abundant that storage tanks were overflowing. Then, the unthinkable: prices fell below zero on April 20, with sellers willing to pay buyers to take unwanted oil off their hands.

May has brought some relief. The worst of the demand drop seems to be over and traffic jams are returning in China and Germany. Governments are easing confinement measures, and that’s boosting consumption. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Russia and their OPEC friends have started unprecedented oil production curbs, easing the massive oversupply. Prices have followed, doubling since late April. But the scale of the slump was so big that any recovery will be long and slow. Some doubt demand will ever return to levels before the crisis. Read more